Archive for the ‘bad beats’ Category

ride it ’til the wheels fall off

Man, I’m tired. This will be a short (hopefully), simple post. First of all, my run continues.

Since my last post, here are my stats…

1136 total hands, 14 hours (7 hours on two tables), $221.75 won, 61.77 BB/100. My total bankroll is at $573.

This thing is crazy. I’m feeling good but reminding myself not to get cocky. I’ve read enough books, blog and forum posts to know that variance, or an up and down cycle, is to be expected. And I also know that a 61 BB/100 winrate is not usually sustainable (more like 7 to 10). But right now I’m just gonna ride this upswing for as long as possible.

Actually I moved up a level yesterday and I was a little apprehensive. This was really the first time I did it in the manner that many online poker experts and pros suggest. With the proper bankroll.

General consensus is that a winning player should keep at least 20 buyins for each limit he’s playing. Excluding poor beginner play, bad bankroll management is the biggest reason that new players go bust. Do yourself a favor and only play in games you can afford. — MicroNL Temporary FAQ, The 2+2 Forums

So, when I had over $400 I moved up. I remember reading something somewhere that said you should just keep doing the things that worked for you on the previous level when you make your move. So, that’s exactly what I did. I am a very aggressive player, but fairly tight as well. Actually, I just recently (over the last couple of weeks) tightened up my starting hands, and it has made a big difference in my profit margins. I never open limp. And with anything decent in late position (66+, KQs+, AJ+), I will put in a second raise, depending on the table. I’ve been doing these things as I grow more confident in my postflop play. I’m getting much better at dumping hands that are probable losers.

So I’ve been pretty much just eating up chips like Pringles. One thing I can say, though, winning poker does definitely have an inescapable element of boredom to it. Especially at these microlimits. In the past, as I surfed various poker sites, I have come across comments from successful poker players regarding how they eventually just got sick of poker. This always puzzled me.

These comments were coming from people who had supposedly made thousands and hundreds of thousands of dollars from playing poker. How do you get sick of making money for playing a game? While I am far from getting sick of poker, I can understand the disciplined grind it requires to win at cash games. It’s really pretty simple to win at microlimits. It’s mainly just a matter of discipline. And that’s where the grind comes in.

When I was losing consistently, now that was exciting. I would go on extreme tilt and push my entire stack in with 72. And sometimes I would win! That is real entertainment. I was truly gambling, and it’s no rush like that. Putting all your money on the line with only a hope and a prayer. On the other hand, there’s really nothing exciting about sitting in front of the computer for hours at a time, weighing each hand, thinking about expected value, position, another player’s VP$IP percentage, etc. “I bet the flop here, if he reraises I autofold… 1,2,3…1,2,3…”

I’m oversimplifying (a little), but at micro-limits, it’s not too much more complicated than that. And I think that is what some losing players don’t get. Without fail, everytime I sit down to a table online, I hear one player giving another player holy hell about one specific play. And usually the playing giving the lecture is the “good” player berating the “fish.” But a truly good player understands that over time, grinding it day in and day out, thoughtful, disciplined play will be profitable. I don’t need to do anything fancy. And if I’m losing over time, say months and years, maybe, just maybe I need to take a look at my own game.

But speaking of profits, in my last post I mentioned something about waiting until my bankroll reached $2100 to make another withdrawal. Now I’m admitting that that idea is pretty much totally unrealistic. I’ve decided that I’m gonna stay at my current level for a while (maybe 20,000 hands), take my time and enjoy some fruits of my labor. The first thing I hope to do is buy myself another mobile phone. I want to be able to leave in $450-$550 when I pull out the two bills I need for the phone. So I need to work up to at least $650. This bankroll management will be one of my greatest challenges.

I’ll keep you posted.

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you unlucky bodog, you!

My account balance is anything but golden.

 

Where I come from, there’s a saying, “Can’t win for losing.” That was me all day today. I think this is my first official bad beat post. Here are the “highlights” from various freeroll tournaments I played today. Read on and enjoy…

Pacific Poker $50 Freeroll

I got low on chips rather early, down to 650 with blinds at 50/100, but tripled up when i hit a set of tens.

With the blinds at 75/150, everyone folded around to me in the small blind. Pushing my remaining 1760 chips all in, I tried to steal the blinds with 96, the big blind called me with KJ, but I sucked out, hitting runner runner to make a queen high straight and doubled up (3520).

But karma came back to do me in. With blinds at 150/300, I picked up AJ in the cut off position. Again, everyone folded around to me. I raised three times the big blind to 900. The button and small blind folded. The big blind called. The flop came 8 of diamonds, ace of clubs, 6 of diamonds, giving me top pair with a very nice kicker and I had position. The big blind bet 600. I pushed all in with 1630. BB had me covered with 3858 remaining in his stack and he made the call. He showed 98 suited spades, and I was thinking, I’m good to go. The turn was the queen of spades. Still good. But the river was the 9 of clubs, giving Mr. Big Blind two pair. And I was outta there. I finished 611th out of 2466

CelebPoker $250 Qualifier

I was pretty much card dead the entire way. I played two hands. I limped with a pair of sevens around the third level but ran into a flop of overcards followed by a raise and a call before me. So I had to fold. When I had about 3 big blinds left I tried my luck with A7. I wasn’t very hopeful though when three other players called my all in bet. I busted out on that hand and finished 79th out of 160.

I busted out of a Cake Poker freeroll on the first hand I played, QQ, when I called a big stack’s all in bet, and was followed by about three other callers. I was good all the way until the river. Then an ace fell and that give the big stack a pair of aces with a queen kicker.

bodog $1000 Guaranteed

While waiting for a freeroll at bodog.com, I lost the last few dollars I had in my account over there. I was playing the $10 NL tables. I had about $2.60 left. I went all in with pocket kings, a guy called me with A4, I thought I might actually have a chance to double up. But, my run of bad luck continued with him catching an ace on the turn.

I also played in the bodog $1000 Guaranteed tourney, which is a freeroll with rebuys and addons. I made it to the 5th level, got crippled when I went all in with AK and missed. I busted out a couple hands later when my pocket jacks got cracked by a guy who called with A9 and made a set of nines with the board.

But in the words of Scarlett O’Hara, “I’ll think of some way to get him back. After all… tomorrow is another day.”

spamalicious!

I hate 99.99999% of the spam I get. I cannot stand the stuff. And every night I fall down on my knees and thank God for email filters. But, I recently got an unsolicited message that was rather interesting and thought-provoking. So much so, that I wanted to share it in its entirety with you guys here.

You cannot spend 10 minutes at most any online poker room without running into someone complaining about receiving a bad beat or being outdrawn. I often hear other players speculating that Site X is rigged or something is “just not right.” Well, this guy, Roy Rounder, whom I had never heard of, offers one of the most sound, well articulated explanations for the “online bad beat syndrome” that I have ever come across.

One last thing: Now, Mr. Rounder didn’t just send me this message to earn frequent emailer points. He’s selling something. A poker program called SIT AND GO SHARK and also an e-book. I know nothing about either one. I haven’t used them, I’m not one of his affiliates, and I am neither recommending these products nor warning against them. I just wanted to share his letter. Here it is…

Makalani,

There are two types of bad beats:

BAD BEAT #1...

When you catch a monster hand but lose to a BIGGER monster
hand.

For example, let's say you're holding pocket Aces and the
flop hits A-6-6. That means you've got a full house.

Your opponent goes ALL-IN... and you call. You think your
Aces are the best hand but they're NOT, because your
opponent has pocket sixes, which gives him the
four-of-a-kind.

BAD BEAT #2...

When YOU have the best hand and your opponent has the WORST
hand but your opponent GETS LUCKY and wins the pot.

For example, let's say you have pocket Aces and go all-in.
Your opponent calls with pocket three's.

The flop hits 2-4-5 and the turn card is a 6, giving your
opponent the STRAIGHT and causing you to lose the hand.

Now that's a bad beat.

And let's face it, the SECOND type of bad beat-- the one
where your opponent gets totally LUCKY and outdraws you-- is
the kind of beat that just plain SUCKS. And pisses you off.

In fact, the second type of bad beat is the kind you
REMEMBER the most too. When someone says, "Hey man, how did
your card game go?", the first thing that will come out of
your mouth will be the story of that bad beat.

Am I right?

Now here's what's interesting...

MORE BAD BEATS HAPPEN IN ONLINE POKER THAN IN "REGULAR" LIVE
POKER.

Literally, you'll see more bad beats happen in an online
poker game than you'll see at a local cash game or in a
casino.

If you play both online and offline poker, I'm sure you
agree with this statement.

So what's going on here? Why would it be this way?

There are two popular "theories"...

1. Online poker is rigged.

2. There are more hands per hour, therefore it's an ILLUSION
that there are more bad beats.

My opinion is that BOTH of these theories are WRONG.

Here's why:

First off, I genuinely believe online poker is NOT rigged.
I mean, c'mon... Do you REALLY think these multi-billion
dollar casinos would need to RIG hands?

They make their money from tournament entry fees and
rakes... and trust me, they're making plenty.

OK, so what about the second theory?

Well, I do agree that there are more hands per hour in
online poker than offline poker. There's no disputing that.

But I don't think that's a good enough reason...

Because my belief is that there are MORE bad beats that
happen per X number of hands ONLINE than for offline poker.

For instance, let's say you played 100 hands. And let's say
you caught two really bad beats for every 100 hands at a
casino. That's 2%.

In online poker, you're likely to catch FIVE or even TEN of
those really bad beats per 100 hands. That's 5-10%.

So the fact that you're seeing MORE hands doesn't explain
the HIGHER PERCENTAGE of bad beats.

Still with me?

OK, so now let me give you MY "theory" about this.

It's not really a theory. Just good old simple logic,
actually.

Here it goes:

The reason there are more bad beats in ONLINE poker is
because the very NATURE of online poker leads people to PLAY
DIFFERENTLY.

The CARDS and ODDS are the same.

It's the PLAYERS that aren't the same.

What I mean is that for online poker, a LARGE portion of
players adopt the style of LOOSE-AGGRESSIVE.

Translation? Manic.

They act irrationally... play hands they shouldn't play...
and bet way too aggressively for most given situations.

Why?

Because online poker isn't as "real".

The money isn't as real. I mean, heck... the casinos give
you so much "free" money when you sign up, how COULD it feel
real?

The cards aren't real. The chips aren't real. The table
isn't real. NONE OF THAT STUFF EVEN EXISTS.

All you see when you play online poker are some silly little
animations. And you hear some "clickity-click" sounds of
fake chips.

That's it.

Nothing else.

Period.

And if you LOSE a game, all you have to do is make three or
four mouse clicks and you're INSTANTLY playing another game.

And hell, you can PLAY ten games at once if you want!

You can literally play poker against 100 players AT THE SAME
TIME!

It's a different world, my friend.

Now... let's get back to the bad beats.

The FACT that players are LOOSE-AGGRESSIVE is what leads to
the SITUATIONS where bad beats happen.

Here's why:

1. Players bet their draws more or call large bets with
draws or OK hands (i.e. bottom pair).

2. More players are involved in every pot.

3. The pots are bigger, since players are more aggressive.

When these conditions COMBINE TOGETHER, it creates an
environment where there are a lot of BIG POTS and bad beats.

It's not that the cards are "rigged".

It's that the betting patterns and playing styles are
DIFFERENT than what you're used to.

And when you combine that with the fact that you see more
hands per hour, it inevitably leads to seeing a lot more
"crazy" hands and bad beats than in regular poker.

OK, so now the obvious question becomes...

Is there any way to PREVENT bad beats?

The answer is yes and no.

Ultimately, bad beats will occur NO MATTER WHAT if you're
playing good poker. Because to win at poker, you've got to
be willing to take RISKS.

And most risks have a minimum 20% chance or more of NOT
working out in your favor.

With that being said, there ARE ways to prevent a LARGE
PORTION of the bad beats you'll see online.

Not only can you prevent them, but you can literally turn it
around and make it YOUR ULTIMATE ADVANTAGE.

The key is to "tilt the tables" in your favor and USE the
fact that players are so loose and aggressive to HELP YOU
win more pots.

The way you achieve this is by adopting a SPECIAL playing
style designed SPECIFICALLY for online poker...

My name for this "secret sauce" is this:

TIGHT-AGGRESSIVE SQUARED.

The concept of "tight-aggressive squared" is quite simple...

It starts with the logic that tight-aggressive is the most
effective playing style to use in poker.

Tight-aggressive means TIGHT with hand selection, AGGRESSIVE
with betting.

With online poker, there are more players in every hand.
That means you must play EVEN TIGHTER with your hand
selection.

You should ONLY play monster hands!

Period!

There's absolutely no reason to get involved with "decent"
hands because the odds are against you.

You're bound to run into players who are CHASING or who just
caught an extremely lucky flop.

When you DO get involved with a hand, you must be OVERLY
aggressive. The pot size will be bigger, so you can't lose
many hands or else you'll be out of the game in a hurry.

You must STRIKE... and you must STRIKE HARD.

You must risk ALL OF YOUR CHIPS-- frequently-- in order to
win.

Of course, it's much easier to risk all of your chips when
you have a GREAT HAND than it is otherwise.

You see, the goal is to do two things:

1. Force out all but one, maybe two players for any pot you
get involved with.

2. Have the odds so unbelievably stacked in your favor that
you win far more HUGE pots than you lose.

And when you win lots of big pots, you become chip leader
VERY QUICKLY. And that's how you take control over a poker
table.

The reason you want to force people OUT of the hand is
simple mathematics.

Let's say for instance you get pocket ACES.

Here's what three of your opponents are holding:

Player 1: K-K

Player 2: 10-9 suited

Player 3: Q-10 offsuit

Now, if you went heads-up against any of these hands
ONE-ON-ONE, your odds of winning would be about 80%. They'd
be 85% against Player 3.

BUT...

If you went up against ALL THREE of these opponents in one
single hand, your odds of winning is just 58.5%!

That's just over 50/50 with the absolute BEST starting hand
possible.

Get my point?

So when you GET pocket Aces, you need to FORCE OUT all but
one caller.

You've got to be VERY AGGRESSIVE.

In low stakes Sit and Go's and ring games online, that quite
often means going all-in.

Like I said, you've got to risk ALL your chips.

Now if you go all-in and one of those players makes a CALL,
you'll win four out of five times.

So if you get five big hands a game, you only lose ONCE. Of
course, that one you lose USUALLY won't wipe you out,
because you'll have more chips from the OTHER big hands...

Get my drift?

Literally, if I play low-stakes online Sit and Go's, here is
what my betting pattern looks like:

Fold
Fold
Fold
Fold
Fold
Fold
Limp-in
Fold
Limp-in
Fold
Fold
Fold
All-in
Fold
Fold
Fold
Fold
Fold
Fold
All-In
Fold

And so on...

I'm serious!

THIS IS HOW YOU WIN. It seems kind of "strange" to think
about, but this is it!

Now... when you get down to just a few players in a game,
it's time to bust out the strategies, bluffs, trick plays,
and so on.

BUT WHAT GETS YOU THERE is this TIGHT-AGGRESSIVE SQUARED
style of play.

OK, so now the question becomes...

If all you did was ever FOLD or go ALL-IN, why would anyone
ever CALL your bets?

What a great question.

And we've already gone over the answer...

It's because online poker isn't the same as offline poker.
The people on there are DISTRACTED and often STUPID and VERY
LOOSE.

That's all there is to it.

AND THAT IS PRECISELY WHY ONLINE POKER IS SO MUCH EASIER TO
MAKE MONEY AT... ONCE YOU LEARN THESE SECRETS.

Once you "crack the code", it's amazing how SIMPLE it is to
win at online poker.

It's actually SO SIMPLE and SO IRRATIONAL that I'm not sure
it will always be this way. It seems that all those fish out
there have GOT to go broke sooner or later.

But until that day comes, I'll be making hay while the sun
is shining...

And I recommend you do the same.

So, you've learned the basic style of play for online poker,
which is "tight-aggressive squared".

Use it, go win some pots, and let me know what you think.

If you find that it makes you some moola (which I know that
it will), then I invite you to download my software program
SIT AND GO SHARK(TM).

SHARK will "hold you by the hand" as you play Sit and Go's
and give you CUSTOMIZED ADVICE! It's pretty powerful stuff.

Click here to check it out:

http://www.SitAndGoShark.com/tl/422YQoW

Also, don't forget about my "underground" best-selling
eBook, "No Limit Holdem Secrets".

This eBook is jam-packed with strategies and techniques...
including many of the MORE ADVANCED tactics you can use to
win at Texas Holdem poker, whether it's online or offline.

Of course, even though a lot of the stuff you'll read in my
book is "pro-level", it's written in an easy-to-understand
and simple-to-follow way... just like this newsletter.

When you read the strategies, you'll be able to implement
them INSTANTLY.

So if you're ready to get a straight-from-the-hip, no B.S.
poker education, download my eBook right now... go here:

http://www.NoLimitHoldemSecrets.com/tl/423AvWx

I'll write to you again soon.

Your Friend,

Roy Rounder

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to those who live in a jurisdiction where gambling is
considered unlawful. The information within this site and
newsletter is being presented solely for entertainment
purposes. I will not be held responsible for any personal
loss of wagers or damages you may incur. Anyone concerned
about having a problem can contact Gamblers Anonymous for
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